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Strait of Hormuz: Supply Chains Need Months to Normalise
Risk matrixderived from the basic assessment
Probability
lowSeverityhigh
Severity
Probability
What happened
Following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the Iran agreement, analysts expect oil and gas supply chains to normalise only over several months. Shipping backlogs, increased insurance premiums, and cautious shipping companies are hindering the return to normal operations.
Potential impact
Persistent volatility in energy prices as well as friction losses in freight and insurance; quantified impact currently open.
Relevance for companies
Energy-intensive industries in Europe should map price and availability risks in scenarios — maritime chokepoints have long-lasting effects.